This is research, not a warning service. Do not rely on it to decide when to leave. Always follow your local fire department, law enforcement and official evacuation orders.
Every wildfire asks the same question: where is it going next? FireShield PWHA, short for Probabilistic Wildfire Hazard Analysis, is our research into that question. It uses established fire-behavior science and hazard methods to estimate where a fire will be over the next six hours, which way it is heading and how fast, and it redoes that forecast every minute.
What it reads
FireShield PWHA stacks together every relevant source it can get: what there is to burn, the shape of the land, how long since the area last burned, humidity and fuel moisture, the wind now and the wind ahead, the fire itself as satellites see it, and the firefighting lines and roads on the ground. It reads all of it for every spot on the map.
The method
PWHA follows the probabilistic hazard approach engineers use to design for earthquakes, applied to wildfire. It runs about a hundred fire simulations side by side, each with slightly different wind, fuel and ember assumptions, using the standard U.S. Forest Service fire-spread model. It then aggregates them into the probability that each spot burns in the next few hours. Satellite heat and mapped fire lines adjust the weights every minute.
Tested on a real fire
We replayed the January 2025 Palisades Fire minute by minute, giving the system only what was known at each moment. Here is the forecast against what really happened.
Where this research is heading
The goal is hours of warning instead of minutes. FireShield PWHA is FireShield research, protected by our patent. It is not a public warning or evacuation service, and no forecast can promise what a fire will do. Do not rely on it: always listen to your local fire authorities.